Methodology
Allegation & Substantiation Rates

Notes on Data Source

These reports compute annual Allegation and Substantiation Rates based on population projections from the California Department of Finance. Please consult the Population methodology for important details.
http://cssr.berkeley.edu/cwscmsreports/methodologies/default.aspx?report=Population

The statewide Allegation Rate for a given year is computed by dividing the unduplicated state count of children with a child maltreatment allegation by the state child population and then multiplying by 1,000 (for an allegation rate per 1,000 children in the population). Similarly, each county's allegation rate for a given year is calculated by dividing the unduplicated county count of children with a child maltreatment allegation by the county child population and then multiplying by 1,000.

The Substantiation Rate (both state and county) for a given year is computed by dividing the unduplicated count of children with a substantiated allegation by the child population and multiplying by 1,000. The ‘% of allegations’ is calculated by dividing the Substantiation Rate by the Allegation Rate.

This differs from other allegation reports and for this reason the reports are not directly comparable. CLICK HERE for details.

Entry Rates are calculated as described above, but by taking the total count of children entering foster care for a given time period (either as a First Entry, or as a Reentry). The ‘% of substantiations’ is calculated by dividing the Entry Rate by the Substantiation Rate.

Entry Rates will correspond to the Foster Care Entries Reports only when the “All Children Entering” option is chosen (as this restricts the count of foster care entries to unique children).

There are differences in ethnic coding between the CWS/CMS and the California Department of Finance data sources used in the rates reports. Specifically, the CWS/CMS data, which comprise the numerator in the rates calculations, include a Missing category, but do not include a Multi-Race category. Conversely, the California Department of Finance data, which comprise the denominator in the rates calculation, include a Multi-Race category, but do not include a Missing category. Therefore, although counts for the Missing and Multi-Race categories are presented, rates for these categories cannot be calculated. Rates for Missing ethnicity display as indeterminate (".") and rates for Multi-Race display as indeterminate (".") or zero (0.0).

Children with missing county assignment are included in the statewide calculation. In addition, children with allegations, substantiated allegations, and entries may be counted in more than one county during a year, but are only counted once statewide. Given these methods, county values may not sum to the statewide total.

Cells containing a period (".") represent a value of zero. In cells representing quotients, a period may also indicate the indeterminate form 0/0.

Data are also available broken out by age, ethnicity, and gender. See the links below for details:

Age Group

Ethnic Group

Gender